📣 📣 A HALF-BILLION DOLLAR MONTH!!! 📣 📣

That’s right! NWA residential sales in August surpassed $500M. Impressive!! That represented a 13% increase from last month’s total residential sales dollars.

Median sold price for a property hit the $350K mark; a threshold we have only met 1 other month in NWA history (June 2024). The average price per square foot remained the same as last month. The ratio of sales price to original list price is still 100%; meaning there are still more houses selling over original list-price than properties selling below the original list-price. All three of these metrics being up indicate sellers are still in firm control of the market.

On the note of price per square foot… Since January of 2022 to August 2024, the average $$/SQFT has gone from $182/SQFT to $220/SQFT. That’s a 20.8% increase. Another way of looking at this is the median SQFT of a sold residential house in NWA has hovered around 1,800 SQFT for the last 4 year; meaning it takes $32,400 more to buy that same 1,800 house today versus January 2022. Or yet another way of looking at it, if you were the owner of an 1,800 SQFT house in January 2022, you’ve gained about $32K in equity for doing nothing. That’s market appreciation.

Months of inventory (MOI) interpreted as the number of months it would take to sell all active listings based on the current rate of buyers closing on houses and if no new listing enter the market. MOI has held a 4 for the fifth consecutive month; an indication that current buying-rates are keeping pace with new-listing rates. As a rule of thumb, many real estate professionals consider a MOI of 12 to be an indication the market has transitioned from a sellers-market to a buyers-market. A MOI of 4 for August 2024 is yet another indicator we are in a robust sellers-market.

New listings and active listings (both 1-month and 12-month changes) saw typical fluctuations; however, expired listings was up 24.4% from last August. That is the largest percent change between consecutive Augusts for expired listings in the last 10+ years. In fact, all other expired listing from one August to the next August have had less than a 10% change (up or down) in the last 10 years. We don’t have data to confirm my suspicions, but we wonder if the changes from the National Association of Realtors Settlement, which took effect in mid-August, had some impact on this…it’s just a point to ponder.

That sums up another productive month of residential sales in NWA. If you have any questions about the market or need any real estate related advice, reach out!

July was another healthy month for residential real estate in NWA.

July was down slightly from June for many statistics. Both total sales dollars and total number of closed transactions were down 5% and 2.2% respectively. Although compared to a year ago, July was significantly more productive with double digit percent increases over July 2023.

There are still strong indicators of an active residential real estate market. Active and New listings were both up from last month, while expired listings were down in that same time period. The median days on market dropped by 6 days from June. Months of Inventory stayed steady at 4. Similarly, the original list price to sales price ratio held for another month at 100%.

As we settle into the back half of the years, it’s reasonable to anticipate the market slow in volume with typical market seasonality.

📣 NEW RECORD for NWA!! 📣

June’s residential total sales dollars of $489M is the highest single-month total in NWA history!! This was $27M more than last month’s sales, and $9M more than the previous record month (June 2023).

As we hit the official halfway mark on 2024, the increase activity seen through the spring months has started to slow. Active Listings dropped by 200+, or a 5.3% drop, after 5 consecutive months of increases. Similarly, New Listings had a 16.1% reduction from May; just shy of 250 fewer active listings than last month. Still, the fact that there was no change in Months of Inventory for the 4th month in a row, indicates the changes in seller-activity is being fairly well matched with changes in buyer-activity.

Home prices seem to remain stable. The median sale price for a home in NWA went down $6K, while the average price per square foot increased marginally by 1.8%. Speaking of consistency, the median days to sell, while up 5 from last month, is right in the middle of our average for the last 12 months; where we have hovered around 63 days on market.

One final point… To truly appreciate and emphasize how much the NWA residential market has changed (grown) in just the last decade, and even more so in just the last 5 years, here are a few more statistics:

➡️ In the last 10 years, NWA has gone from double-digit-million-dollar sales months…(February of 2014 was the last at $82M), to multi-hundred-million-dollar sales months.
➡️ NWA had it’s first $300M+ month in history in May 2019 ($314M); just 5 years ago.
➡️ The first $400M+ residential sales month was June of 2021 ($439M); only 3 years ago.
➡️ The month of June has set a new record high in total sale each of the last 4 years ($439M in 2021, $470M in 2022, $479M in 2023, and $489M in 2024). At that rate, there’s a fair chance NWA sees its first $500M+ month in June of next year. Anyone want to make a wager on it?? 😅

**May Market Statistics for NWA**

By all indications, the market is still doing well. Months of inventory (MOI), the ratio of original list price to sale price, and average sales price per square foot all saw very little or no change. A sign of a steady market. The number of new and active listing increased slightly from last month showing more sellers are entering the market, but MOI remaining the same shows buyers are keeping pace with new activity on the market.

Total sales, both by dollars and by count, were down slightly from last year, but up from last month. The discrepancy between 1-month change percent increases between dollar volume and number closed is telling of the increase in final sales prices compared to the prior month. Speaking of....

Median sale price has hovered around $335K for much of the last 10 months, so to see the almost $30K jump from last month was surprising. In fact, $367,500 is the HIGHEST single-month median sales price in NWA history. This may be the peaks for median sales price of 2024, because each year the peak typically occurs in May or June (7 of last 10 years; the COVID years of 2020 and 2021 were the anomaly when the prices just kept rising all year long).

Over the last 10 years, the median sales price has increase over $200K ($154K in 2014 to $267K in 2024). Or another was to interpret it, at that rate of change for each additional year, the median sales price has increased $22K. If that trend continues, 5 years from now the median sales price would be another $100K higher ($469K) and in just 7 years, the median sales price would be over a half million!! This is one time we hope the trend slows to keep NWA still an affordable place to live.

That sums up the interested updates to the NWA residential market. If you have real estate market questions, reach out anytime!

⭐️ NWA Market Statistic for April 2024 ⭐️

April was a solid month for residential real estate sales in NWA, but surprisingly there’s not a whole lot to say about it.

Every metric was up or had no change from March except median days on market which saw an 8-day decrease (a good thing).

April was the first month in 2024 to cross the $400M mark in total sales dollars; almost $50M more than last month. This jump was from the almost 100 additional closed transaction in April vs March.

The fact that median sale price, average price per square foot, and ratio of sale price to original list price all saw less then a 1% change from last month shows values are steady.

For the 2nd month in a row, months of inventory (MOI) held steady at 4...a sign sellers are still in control of the market.

Those are the key takeaways from the April statistics. May tends to be one of the best months for sellers, so I anticipate even better numbers next month.

NWA Market statistics for February are in!

Overall national trends have seen slowing housing markets (less sales, longer days on market, and significantly fewer new loan applications). Anecdotally, based on the number of price changes and activity levels on listings (showings, agent inquiries, offer submissions, etc.) we saw during February, we would have expected to see more signs of the market slowing. However, we can’t say the numbers reflect that (at least not yet).

The months of inventory went down from 6 to 5 months in February, and the ratio of sales price to original list price is still in the very high 90’s. Both of which indicate buyers are out there and are still offering very close to the list price (i.e. sellers are not making large concessions to find a buyer). Consistent marginal increases in median sales price and price per square foot is reassuring. Along similar lines, total sales, both by dollars and by count, was up more than 20% from last month.

Interestingly, expired listings dropped significantly (only 2 for every 3 in Jan), which you would expect to be increasing if the market was turning to more of a buyer’s market. New listings jumped 18.6% from last month; which could seem worrisome if months of inventory was increasing. However, with the opposite true, it is a sign new buyers entering the market have been outpacing new sellers entering the market. Something worth continuing to monitor.

The one metric here that could indicate a slowing is the median days to sell, which increased by 9 days to 83 days to sell. This was the first time in five years (March 2019) that the median days to sell was 80 days or above. We would be incline to interpret this as a less cut-throat market for buyers. That is, there are fewer competing offers on a single listing, and less of a need for offers with very competitive terms (like cash offers that waive inspections which typically yield much faster closings).

Truthfully, we had expected to see a more prominent slowdown in February from January, but we can’t speak to that just yet looking at the updated performance indicators. Although we will acknowledge it does have an inherent flaw, as this data is always rear-looking (historical data vs. projection models). Still, knowing the real numbers for this market allows us to provide clients with the best information; which is far more important than “my gut says” advise. Reach out if you have any questions or any real estate need!

Let’s talk numbers! Here's the latest stats for NWA residential real estate market:

For the 5^th straight month, median sale price has held steady or decreased slightly; meaning property values are stabilizing; however, Jan 2024 median sale price was still $9,000 more than January of last year. There were also very marginal changes in the ratio of original list price to sale price. Interestingly enough, we have remained above 98% of original list price to sale price for 59 consecutive months (Feb 2019).

The months of inventory (MOI) went up by 1 month, but this was not unexpected as many of the expired listings in December are renewed in January leading to a disproportionate increase in supply (vs. demand) relative to the other months of the year. In fact, the single month change is less than expected given NWA had 7 MOI in Jan 2023.

The median days to sell saw a fairly sizable increase. 74 days reflects a 9-day rise from Dec to Jan, and a 51% increase in the number of days as compare to 49 days in Jan 2023 (although Jan 2023 was the lowest for the entirety of 2023). For additional context, 74 days to sell is the highest since Jan 2020; just before the start of the unprecedented pandemic changes to the housing market. However, 74 days is right at the average for median days to sell for the 5 years preceding the pandemic (which was still a very solid market).

Looking a listing metrics, NWA had a 32.6 % increase in new listing in Jan from Dec (240 more). Active listings stayed in a reasonable single-digit increase, both in 12-month and 1-month changes. The more interesting of the listing statistics is the expired listings that was up 20% from Jan of last year but down 30.6% from last month. In perspective, the 30.6% drop is the smallest decrease from any consecutive Dec/Jan in the last 10+ years. Meaning this was one of the least drastic changes in expired listings than we have historically seen when the new year rolls over.

While $255M in total sales volume being down 27% from last month feel painful, this was the smallest drop for the same time frame of the last 3 years prior. But this number still represents over $20M more dollars in sales than Jan 2023. No surprise this strongly correlates to the number of total closed sales, which also saw the smallest drop in the last 3 years prior but still out preformed Jan 2023 by almost 50 more closed transactions.

All in all, Jan of 2024 out preformed Jan of 2023 in most metrics (evident in the statistics in yellow being up). The only two decreases in statistics were new listing with only 10 fewer new listings, and a lower MOI which is theoretically saying sellers “gained” leverage in the current market over last January.

Interesting start to 2024 to say the least. Let us know if you have any questions about the numbers or the real estate market in general.

**NWA Market Statistics for December 2023**

With 2023 wrapped up, the escalation in property values seem to have stabilized. The average $/SQFT increased less than 1% from last month. Median sale price was also the same as last month and only 3.1% higher than a year ago; which is a much more realistic and reasonable rate of annual increase in property values than the double-digit increases we were seeing the past couple years.

A few indicators no significant market shifts have occurred yet: sale price to original list price is still in the very high 90’s, months of inventory held at 5 for the third month in a row, and median days to sell actually went down by 2 days.

The two large percentage changes from last month (new & expired listings) would look ominous out of context, but in perspective aren’t particularly unusual. 1) New Listings typically has a significant drop from November to December. This time there was a 26% decrease; however, compare that to the same time last year, it’s only 8 fewer new listings in Dec 2023 compared to Dec 2022. Showing the activity level is similar to years prior. 2) Expired Listings was up 72.7% from last month, but that is significantly skewed by how listing agreements are frequently written. As a natural end-date, many agents create listings with expirations set for the last day of the year; causing a large jump in this metric in December.  Many of these expired listings are renewed in January, which is why we tend to see a jump in months of inventory in January before things settle down again. The 72.7% increase from November is actually significantly less than the Nov/Dec change of last year when expired listings saw a 107% increase (or almost 300 more expired listings Nov/Dec 2022 vs Nov/Dec 2023).

2023 Round Up: a couple annual totals now that we have closed the books on 2023. NWA saw 10,879 closed residential transactions in 2023; just over 1,100 less than the total number closed in 2022. Those 10K+ sales translated to $4.3 Billion in total sales volume; down just 5.1% from last year’s $4.5B in total closed dollars. Overall, the real estate market in 2023 was not quite as robust as 2022, but for all of the initial speculated down turn, 2023 did a good job holding its own.

With housing supply still short of needed demand, and with interest rate increases expected to pause or even reverse, there is a good chance 2024 will be another solid year. Reach out if you have any questions about real estate in NWA!