Like last month, the error in median days to sell is impacting the data for September so this metric was not included in this month’s analysis. Hopefully it will be corrected for October. Other than that, there was really only two main things that stand out after looking over the latest month of data.
First, enough time as past that it is fair to say we are back to the pattern of gradual rise in median sells price prior to the hyper-competitive market during COVID. Going back, the median sales price in Benton and Washington counties was rising at a consistent pattern from 2015 to March of 2021. (Picture a slightly increasing straight line…the prices for each month might oscillate above or below the line but overall, months stay within a small margin of the line.) During this time frame, we could broadly say for every one month, the median sales price would rise about $1,100. Contrast this with the peak 13-months in COVID (April 2021 to April 2022), when for every one month, the median sales price increased almost $5,600 (a 500% increase)! Since May of 2022, we have been back to the broad consistent market-wide pattern of about a $1,100 increase in median sales price per month. This is all to say the NWA market is back on pace with the growth that was happening prior to the surge of COVID-market-conditions.
Second, there may be subtle sign of a market slowing. Each of the last 4 months have set a new 10-year high for the number of Active Listings. This means there are more sellers looking to sell that have not found a buyer. This is also reflected in the increase in months of inventory (MOI). Last month was the first time we’ve had a month of Inventory of 6 outside of January or February (when the market is typically at its slowest) since 2018. Another subtle sign is that expired listings increase 15.1% from last month; showing sellers are leaving the market without having found a buyer. Even with these three points, it’s worth pointing out that we have not seen a notable reduction in the ratio of sales price to original list price, which often drops when buyers have more leverage in the market. That said, continuing to monitor the statistics every month is the best way to know how the market is changing.