NWA Market statistics for February are in!

Overall national trends have seen slowing housing markets (less sales, longer days on market, and significantly fewer new loan applications). Anecdotally, based on the number of price changes and activity levels on listings (showings, agent inquiries, offer submissions, etc.) we saw during February, we would have expected to see more signs of the market slowing. However, we can’t say the numbers reflect that (at least not yet).

The months of inventory went down from 6 to 5 months in February, and the ratio of sales price to original list price is still in the very high 90’s. Both of which indicate buyers are out there and are still offering very close to the list price (i.e. sellers are not making large concessions to find a buyer). Consistent marginal increases in median sales price and price per square foot is reassuring. Along similar lines, total sales, both by dollars and by count, was up more than 20% from last month.

Interestingly, expired listings dropped significantly (only 2 for every 3 in Jan), which you would expect to be increasing if the market was turning to more of a buyer’s market. New listings jumped 18.6% from last month; which could seem worrisome if months of inventory was increasing. However, with the opposite true, it is a sign new buyers entering the market have been outpacing new sellers entering the market. Something worth continuing to monitor.

The one metric here that could indicate a slowing is the median days to sell, which increased by 9 days to 83 days to sell. This was the first time in five years (March 2019) that the median days to sell was 80 days or above. We would be incline to interpret this as a less cut-throat market for buyers. That is, there are fewer competing offers on a single listing, and less of a need for offers with very competitive terms (like cash offers that waive inspections which typically yield much faster closings).

Truthfully, we had expected to see a more prominent slowdown in February from January, but we can’t speak to that just yet looking at the updated performance indicators. Although we will acknowledge it does have an inherent flaw, as this data is always rear-looking (historical data vs. projection models). Still, knowing the real numbers for this market allows us to provide clients with the best information; which is far more important than “my gut says” advise. Reach out if you have any questions or any real estate need!

Let’s talk numbers! Here's the latest stats for NWA residential real estate market:

For the 5^th straight month, median sale price has held steady or decreased slightly; meaning property values are stabilizing; however, Jan 2024 median sale price was still $9,000 more than January of last year. There were also very marginal changes in the ratio of original list price to sale price. Interestingly enough, we have remained above 98% of original list price to sale price for 59 consecutive months (Feb 2019).

The months of inventory (MOI) went up by 1 month, but this was not unexpected as many of the expired listings in December are renewed in January leading to a disproportionate increase in supply (vs. demand) relative to the other months of the year. In fact, the single month change is less than expected given NWA had 7 MOI in Jan 2023.

The median days to sell saw a fairly sizable increase. 74 days reflects a 9-day rise from Dec to Jan, and a 51% increase in the number of days as compare to 49 days in Jan 2023 (although Jan 2023 was the lowest for the entirety of 2023). For additional context, 74 days to sell is the highest since Jan 2020; just before the start of the unprecedented pandemic changes to the housing market. However, 74 days is right at the average for median days to sell for the 5 years preceding the pandemic (which was still a very solid market).

Looking a listing metrics, NWA had a 32.6 % increase in new listing in Jan from Dec (240 more). Active listings stayed in a reasonable single-digit increase, both in 12-month and 1-month changes. The more interesting of the listing statistics is the expired listings that was up 20% from Jan of last year but down 30.6% from last month. In perspective, the 30.6% drop is the smallest decrease from any consecutive Dec/Jan in the last 10+ years. Meaning this was one of the least drastic changes in expired listings than we have historically seen when the new year rolls over.

While $255M in total sales volume being down 27% from last month feel painful, this was the smallest drop for the same time frame of the last 3 years prior. But this number still represents over $20M more dollars in sales than Jan 2023. No surprise this strongly correlates to the number of total closed sales, which also saw the smallest drop in the last 3 years prior but still out preformed Jan 2023 by almost 50 more closed transactions.

All in all, Jan of 2024 out preformed Jan of 2023 in most metrics (evident in the statistics in yellow being up). The only two decreases in statistics were new listing with only 10 fewer new listings, and a lower MOI which is theoretically saying sellers “gained” leverage in the current market over last January.

Interesting start to 2024 to say the least. Let us know if you have any questions about the numbers or the real estate market in general.

**NWA Market Statistics for December 2023**

With 2023 wrapped up, the escalation in property values seem to have stabilized. The average $/SQFT increased less than 1% from last month. Median sale price was also the same as last month and only 3.1% higher than a year ago; which is a much more realistic and reasonable rate of annual increase in property values than the double-digit increases we were seeing the past couple years.

A few indicators no significant market shifts have occurred yet: sale price to original list price is still in the very high 90’s, months of inventory held at 5 for the third month in a row, and median days to sell actually went down by 2 days.

The two large percentage changes from last month (new & expired listings) would look ominous out of context, but in perspective aren’t particularly unusual. 1) New Listings typically has a significant drop from November to December. This time there was a 26% decrease; however, compare that to the same time last year, it’s only 8 fewer new listings in Dec 2023 compared to Dec 2022. Showing the activity level is similar to years prior. 2) Expired Listings was up 72.7% from last month, but that is significantly skewed by how listing agreements are frequently written. As a natural end-date, many agents create listings with expirations set for the last day of the year; causing a large jump in this metric in December.  Many of these expired listings are renewed in January, which is why we tend to see a jump in months of inventory in January before things settle down again. The 72.7% increase from November is actually significantly less than the Nov/Dec change of last year when expired listings saw a 107% increase (or almost 300 more expired listings Nov/Dec 2022 vs Nov/Dec 2023).

2023 Round Up: a couple annual totals now that we have closed the books on 2023. NWA saw 10,879 closed residential transactions in 2023; just over 1,100 less than the total number closed in 2022. Those 10K+ sales translated to $4.3 Billion in total sales volume; down just 5.1% from last year’s $4.5B in total closed dollars. Overall, the real estate market in 2023 was not quite as robust as 2022, but for all of the initial speculated down turn, 2023 did a good job holding its own.

With housing supply still short of needed demand, and with interest rate increases expected to pause or even reverse, there is a good chance 2024 will be another solid year. Reach out if you have any questions about real estate in NWA!

November numbers are in! Generally speaking, the numbers for November look pretty consistent with what someone would expect a November in NWA to look like. None of the statistics stand out as particularly attention getting or noteworthy.

Compared to 12 months ago, all metrics are up except months of inventory (no change from 12-month prior) and sale price versus original list price (down 0.2% from 100% 12-months ago); both insignificant changes.

For the last five months, the median sale price has held fairly steady. It has hovered between $335K and $340K. That small $5K variation is the smallest fluctuation in any 5 consecutive month period in the last 4.5 years (previous smallest was Oct 2018 to Feb 2019 all between $188K and $192K). This sign of stability should be refreshing to buyers.

The only double-digit change from the prior month was new listings which saw a 19% decrease. Meaning for every 5 sellers that entered the market in October, there was only 4 in November. However, the fact that months of inventory didn’t change, says that the rate of decrease in sellers entering the markets is very similar to the rate of decrease of successful buyers in the market.

Looking at the percentage changes of these metrics from the last month, you could say there is a small general decrease; however, given the changes are marginal for most metrics, it is hard to state these are a sign of a shift in the market or the typical slowing of the market seen during winter months. In fact, these were smaller decrease than the same time period last year…which was still followed by a very successful year in 2023. We hope that continues, but remain vigilant for signs of market shifts.